GAB’s counterpoint to each of the WebMonkey assertions:
Relying on the fickle “IT” factor to perpetuate is not realistic as we have seen with the pet rock, views can quickly change as the Google brand alone pulls a lot of “IT” weight.
Understood that those locked into the AT&T contracts with the iPhone may not break it to get a gPhone instead, but I would dispute that only slackers are left to buy Android enabled phones as it was recently reported by NPD that cell phone sales have been down this year and thus a market that can be had for an iPhone alternative.
Fact of the matter is that the Android SDK is not even in Beta yet so this is a premature comparison of SDKs since the iPhone has already been established, but Google is making the smart move in opening up Android to the developer community as a whole to explore its vulnerabilities and security issues before it is released, conversely to the iPhone which kept that internally and has to hot-fix issues as they come up after launch.
What is not mentioned is the sizable chunk the App Store takes and that already service providers such as T-Mobile are opening their own App Store’s which would serve Android applications, so as Android expands to other providers in 2009 and they start their own App Stores competition will ensue where developers win with a higher percentage share of the sales.
It will be tough for Android to top the “bold experimentation” of making a phone a level, cowbell, and a tuning fork – although perhaps such applications in the Android Developer Challenge alone may be more useful such as a bar-code scanner.
I believe the developers jumping ship is just rhetoric, as its true many were frustrated with the long gap of a new SDK and information from Google, but I feel its because the developers care and will continue to grow the closer as they see the light at the end of the tunnel with a full Android release and phone coming out by the end of this year.
The debate on iPhone vs Android will be more accurately gauged approximately a year from now as more gPhones enter the market and Android’s open source environment proliferates.
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Here’s my take on counterpoints to his six points:
1. I have far less faith in the strength of the Google brand, only because I’m skeptical there will be much Google branding on Android devices. And, I would expect the iPhone to have cachet on par with the iPod for quite some time, because Apple is much, much better at that than any carrier or handset maker. However, just as there’s a whole lot more MP3 players on the market than the iPod family, there will be a lot more phones on the market than just the iPhone, and so Android has every chance to get a substantial chunk of the market. And the iPhone seems to be mostly a US phenomenon at this time.
2. The sales of the iPhone are a drop in the bucket of the overall mobile device market. Yes, for a single device, it’s impressive, and I’ll be surprised if any single Android device sells as many any time soon. But iPhone sold, what, ~10 million so far? There are hundreds of millions of devices out there, maybe approaching one billion. Moreover, his point on contract lock-in is very US-centric; while Apple has been forcing such lock-in wherever possible in other markets, nobody else does AFAIK, and that will be quite the albatross if Android phones are sold like other smartphones in Europe and Asia.
3. The iPhone SDK, based on those who have smuggled it out of NDA-land, definitely seems slick…if you’re an OS X developer. Otherwise, it’s preposterous, and I’m not just talking about the NDA and fees. Objective-C is #42 on the August 2008 TIOBE index, below some long-moribund mainframe/minicomputer languages. And that’s *with* OS X all but requiring Objective-C for years and years. Java is #1. Admittedly, TIOBE isn’t a perfect measuring stick, but there’s no question that there are tons more tools, libraries, and experienced developers with Java than with Objective-C.
4. Actually, I kinda agree with Mr. Loganbill on this one. It would appear Android is not going with a unified app store, but rather a per-carrier app store, which will suck beyond comprehension. Here’s hoping a third-party app store wins (“Shane Isbell, there’s a call for you on the white courtesy phone”) and gives Android developers and users one-stop shopping.
5. Android will likely wind up with bolder experimentation, simply due to openness. That provides whole new avenues of experimentation at the hardware level that the iPhone explicitly prohibits.
6. I expect that, in 12-18 months, there will be as many Android developers in the US as iPhone developers, because it’s easier to get into Android (no new language) and the iPhone SDK NDA may slow down third-party support (e.g., more books are slated for Android than for iPhone development). Outside the US, I expect Android developers to mop the floor with iPhone developers.
1. Google brand is more powerful than Apple in the rest of the world other than US.
2. The market is big enough, and am sure there’s a lot of iphone haters who would want to get gphone.
3. Android SDK is the best available mobile development platform as of today.
4. Android App stores are going to pop up everywhere for easy application access worldwide.
5. Majority of users don’t care. They just need a phone that works.
6. Developers have come back as evidenced by the activity in android-developers forum.
Thanks for commenting on my blog Michael. Coming from the perspective of a consumer-tech observer (not developer/politics): I know a lot of people who own an iPhone even though they don’t know how to use all the features. I know people who don’t even know how to put music on their iPod, but LOVE it anyway. Soo…
1. Google has tremendous brand recognition but consumers love their iPods. I am waiting for a newcomer to replace this darling brand.
2. Contracts expire, plus they are now prorated.
3. As an outsider, it appears that Android could have more app developers than iPhone. But I wonder if gPhone doesn’t take off instantly will it be deemed a failure?
4. Someone will surely unify Android apps in one store.
5. I don’t need a cowbell.
6. I hope #6 isn’t true otherwise iPhone is the way to go.
Android gPhone News Tips Opinions & Advice
Here’s my take on counterpoints to his six points:
1. I have far less faith in the strength of the Google brand, only because I’m skeptical there will be much Google branding on Android devices. And, I would expect the iPhone to have cachet on par with the iPod for quite some time, because Apple is much, much better at that than any carrier or handset maker. However, just as there’s a whole lot more MP3 players on the market than the iPod family, there will be a lot more phones on the market than just the iPhone, and so Android has every chance to get a substantial chunk of the market. And the iPhone seems to be mostly a US phenomenon at this time.
2. The sales of the iPhone are a drop in the bucket of the overall mobile device market. Yes, for a single device, it’s impressive, and I’ll be surprised if any single Android device sells as many any time soon. But iPhone sold, what, ~10 million so far? There are hundreds of millions of devices out there, maybe approaching one billion. Moreover, his point on contract lock-in is very US-centric; while Apple has been forcing such lock-in wherever possible in other markets, nobody else does AFAIK, and that will be quite the albatross if Android phones are sold like other smartphones in Europe and Asia.
3. The iPhone SDK, based on those who have smuggled it out of NDA-land, definitely seems slick…if you’re an OS X developer. Otherwise, it’s preposterous, and I’m not just talking about the NDA and fees. Objective-C is #42 on the August 2008 TIOBE index, below some long-moribund mainframe/minicomputer languages. And that’s *with* OS X all but requiring Objective-C for years and years. Java is #1. Admittedly, TIOBE isn’t a perfect measuring stick, but there’s no question that there are tons more tools, libraries, and experienced developers with Java than with Objective-C.
4. Actually, I kinda agree with Mr. Loganbill on this one. It would appear Android is not going with a unified app store, but rather a per-carrier app store, which will suck beyond comprehension. Here’s hoping a third-party app store wins (“Shane Isbell, there’s a call for you on the white courtesy phone”) and gives Android developers and users one-stop shopping.
5. Android will likely wind up with bolder experimentation, simply due to openness. That provides whole new avenues of experimentation at the hardware level that the iPhone explicitly prohibits.
6. I expect that, in 12-18 months, there will be as many Android developers in the US as iPhone developers, because it’s easier to get into Android (no new language) and the iPhone SDK NDA may slow down third-party support (e.g., more books are slated for Android than for iPhone development). Outside the US, I expect Android developers to mop the floor with iPhone developers.
Anyway, those are my two cents’ worth…
Mark,
Disappointed to read you at WebMonkey.
Really, there are some points that are very inaccurate, and it seems that you aren’t very well informed about the actual facts.
(i.e. Have you seen the latest iteration of the O.S?)
1. Google brand is more powerful than Apple in the rest of the world other than US.
2. The market is big enough, and am sure there’s a lot of iphone haters who would want to get gphone.
3. Android SDK is the best available mobile development platform as of today.
4. Android App stores are going to pop up everywhere for easy application access worldwide.
5. Majority of users don’t care. They just need a phone that works.
6. Developers have come back as evidenced by the activity in android-developers forum.
@Neenor:
First, I never posted at WebMonkey.
Second, if you feel that I am mistaken, would you mind pointing out where? Otherwise, I have no means of correcting matters.
Third, if by “the O.S.” you mean Android, then yes I have seen the latest iteration. Why do you ask?
Oops.
I thought YOU were the one that wrote the article there.
(sorry)
Thanks for commenting on my blog Michael. Coming from the perspective of a consumer-tech observer (not developer/politics): I know a lot of people who own an iPhone even though they don’t know how to use all the features. I know people who don’t even know how to put music on their iPod, but LOVE it anyway. Soo…
1. Google has tremendous brand recognition but consumers love their iPods. I am waiting for a newcomer to replace this darling brand.
2. Contracts expire, plus they are now prorated.
3. As an outsider, it appears that Android could have more app developers than iPhone. But I wonder if gPhone doesn’t take off instantly will it be deemed a failure?
4. Someone will surely unify Android apps in one store.
5. I don’t need a cowbell.
6. I hope #6 isn’t true otherwise iPhone is the way to go.