Android News

There has been a noticeable trend in the reports on Android for the past few months as Google and the Open Handset Alliance members echo the party line:

“We’re still on track to announce Android-powered phones this year” specifically “the 2nd half of 2008” and “we do not provide comments on rumors and speculation“.

Since Google is not talking lets look at the news using a combination of Google Trends and Alerts plus some logical filtering of unreliable sources and splogs to see the following:

• Late June - The Wall Street Journal writes that Android is facing a delay to the 4th quarter, which actually isn’t a delay as Google stated from last year it would debut in the 2nd half of 2008, which the 4th quarter is a part of.
• Late July- Analysts predict mergers of Android with Symbian, LiMo, RIM, etc any of which may happen in time but in the near term purely fanciful speculation.
• Early August - Barrons reported once again Android will be delayed, but this time it will be pushed back to 2009.
• Mid August - An HTC Dream prototype video is leaked on YouTube and then the The New York Times heralds the Johnny-come-lately news that T-Mobile will be the first with an Android-enabled handset created by HTC, which incidentally was posted here being among the first sites declaring this back in early July when T-Mobile revealed it would expand 3G service.

So using this trend it is logical to predict that some news organization around early September will exclaim Android is delayed yet again.

This time its a delay only to an artificially speculated arrival date of October 2008 if it in fact launches in November or December, but its never really a delay since this falls in both the 2nd half and by the end of 2008 official line from Google.

My prediction from sources is that a new Android SDK will be announced by the end of August and barring any complication from the FCC in September a joint announcement from Google and the Open Handset Alliance on the debut of an Android enabled phone, else the easy money is on trend of hearing for some time “we do not provide comments on rumors and speculation“.

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Every week there is a near baseless prediction that Android is delayed or merging from this analyst or that source but often lacking in substance or firm data.

I interviewed an analyst that has both substance and data due in large part to his twenty plus years of experience in sales, strategic marketing, and business development roles at several leading corporations including IBM, General Electric, and Motorola.

Bill Hughes is a Principal Analyst for In-Stat’s wireless research group and spoke about Android in Forbes last month and now provided GAB (Google And Blog) follow-up answers to recent Android questions.

• What are your thoughts on the buzz about Symbian and Android merging? Or LiMo?

The article takes pains to point out that this is speculation. I find such a scenario as unlikely. There is little in the respective business plans that would lead to the conclusion that such a merger would make much sense.

I see Google’s motivation is to kick start a location-sensitive search model that, from their perspective, is moving at a glacial pace. That means working with Apple, the Symbian Foundation, Android, or whoever it takes, to make this application a reality.

I wrote about this in my report, “The iPhone and gPhone: Shaking Up the Wireless World” (IN0804043WH). Google wants to make things happen by pursuing multiple approaches. Mergers would probably be counterproductive to this goal. It takes time and resources away from a viable alternative with which they are cooperating.

(My thinking is it would be great, but don’t see it happening too soon especially as Nokia takes control of the Symbian Foundation.)

• Do you feel the first gPhone will come out in October when T-Mobile opens up its 3G service? Speculation is it will be the HTC Dream.

I have not special insight into this. It seems reasonable for October.

• Do you sense they will be the craze of purchasing a gPhone like it has been for the iPhone and if not, what should Google/OHA do about this?

It is not realistic to plan for the enthusiasm that the iPhone has generated any more than my report, “The iPhone and gPhone: Shaking Up the Wireless World” should win a Pulitzer prize and the “Google And Blog” should win the Nobel prize for literature.

The Apple mystique cannot be duplicated quickly or easily. While I believe that many enthusiasts will want to see it soon after launch, I doubt that the wireless operators will need to bring out the velvet ropes to control the crowds at the mall.

• What are your thoughts on the developer petition for an updated SDK?

I believe that all of us that use email regularly, one time or another, have sent an email to precisely the wrong distribution list. You cannot un-ring a bell.

I imagine that Google did not release the next version because it has not been vetted internally and that the version sent to the Android challenge winners was to be a beta test.

This puts the Android team in a tough position. While they have fixed up some of the bugs reported in the initial version, there are undoubtedly new ones in the new version. There always are. Plus the documentation and other support tools are probably not ready for widespread distribution.

At this point, the only option, to avoid alienating the developers that are essential to Android’s success, is to get it ready as soon as possible by pouring resources into getting the new version ready as soon as possible.

• As well about the Sprint manager being silenced after speaking on Android?

Many companies have formal procedures for talking to the press. It is unwise to have employees stating facts or opinions about anything that is not officially released through proper channels. This is the case, even if what they say is perfectly in line with company policy. If nothing else, it is too easy to conflict with financial regulations that restrict what a company can say about its future prospects.

In this case, it looks to me that the Sprint employee was speaking honestly, but without official sanction. My expectation is that this is not anything that Google has not heard before. Coming from Sprint through unofficial channels will be an irritant, but I do not believe that big a deal.

• What other stumbling blocks do you see for the gPhone?

The first key for Android will be attracting and keeping a dynamic developer ecosystem. The second key will be to find a way to share advertising revenue with wireless operators. I would not doubt that the handset manufacturers would also want a piece of the advertising revenue stream, although I do not think that they have the market power to demand it.

Workshops and books in developing Android are now advertising for Fall dates as they align their timing with the first gPhones that are Android-enabled hitting the market.

There will be an Android Developers Workshop at Mobile Internet World in Boston on Tuesday October 21st hosted by Justin Mattson, the Android Developer Advocate at Google.

Justin will introduce Android and Google’s vision for it before walking through building an application using the SDK and developer tools.

The application will be used to discuss the aspects of the Android application framework and then expanded to have an open discussion with Rich Miner, one of the founders of Android and the current GM of Mobile Platforms at Google.

The Android Developer Challenge Round 2 winners will be announced shortly but if you missed out on that Tele Atlas states they are opening to Android developers a Map App contest, but they are to provide me more concrete details since on the site it states the application deadline has passed.

I have also been contacted by several publishers of Android coding development books for personal reviews which I will be doing as they get published in the coming months and then I will provide the readers of Google And Blog free copies.

Last week at the Mobile Web Wars Roundtable a question was raised about why bother talking about Android as nobody cares, but this was turned on its head as it was predicted this same person would be kissing Google’s ass once it comes out….all while LiMo is building its membership.

LiMo announced that its open-source mobile consortium has increased its membership to over 50 partners by adding 11 new companies Cellon, Esmertec, Freescale Semiconductor, Longcheer Holdings, MIZI Research, Movial, PacketVideo, SK Innoace, Telecom Italia, VirtualLogix, and ZTE.

Plus LiMo announced that 50% more mobile handsets are using its software being that seven new phones are shipping now from NEC, Panasonic, and Motorola with the superb photo quality picture phone the MOTOZINE ZN5.

The fact that LiMo, Symbian, & Apple already have mobile phones out there using their software while Android is still being developed led to Pandora’s CTO Tony Conrad stating, “I need Android like I need a hole in the head.”

Michael Arrington quickly and I think embracing his inner Nostradamus, although not quite in a quatrain format, stated, “As soon as it launches you are going to be kissing Google’s ass and launching on their platform…We are going to put your face next to that quote when you launch your Android app.”

The video below shows this conversation from the Mobile Web Wars Roundtable which was setup by Eric Schonfeld of TechCrunch as an open discussion about, if not now, when the mobile Web arrives and which platform will dominate the space.